Sunday, 21 July 2019

E Editorial

There are rats, but there’s nowhere to run

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An ambiguous, unforeseen situation has arisen in Armenia: the majority of the parliament is the opposition, and the smallest faction is the government. This is a consequence of the RPA policy. The parliamentary majority is not considered legitimate on the part of society, that is, the institution of elections has been so raped that it is regarded as a prostitute, and the government, in fact, was formed through direct public intervention.

The current situation is not a constitutional crisis, but a discredited parliamentary crisis due to electoral fraud, which caused such an exotic situation. As a result, the main topic of the public discourse of today's Armenia is a possible solution to this situation. In particular, two possible options are considered:

A / Counter-revolution. Most of the National Assembly, feeling that public confidence in the current government is weakening, is restoring its positions. In other words, being incapable of accepting the necessary bills, the government either has to resign, or a year later the majority of the National Assembly expresses a vote of no-confidence in the government.

B / Rat Races. The RPA faction is collapsing, and the parliament becomes manageable for the executive body. A significant part of the RPA faction, businessmen and local authorities, are under the control of the government. To control them, the latter has at hand two effective tools - direct dependence on the government and increased attention of law enforcement. The RPA political group becomes a minority in the National Assembly.

Both "counterrevolutionaries" and "revolutionaries" are in the same trap and have one option - to meet public demand. Demand remains the same: joint efforts to implement deep structural reforms that will not allow us to return to the pre-revolutionary situation. The changes will guarantee that both sides can continue to live in Armenia. And now let’s consider the probability of two scenarios.



The revolution was not realized for the sake of the Civil Contract party, but against the system embodied by Serzh Sargsyan. The attitude of people towards the current government can change, but in no case will it change with respect to the former government and a return to the old order and old people will not be allowed. This is the cornerstone of the national agreement. And in this sense, the expectations of "counterrevolution" are false. Neither Nikol Pashinyan nor the current government is the main obstacle to the return to the old order. This is the mass of young people who do not want to return to Old Armenia.


Rat race

This "optimistic" approach is conditioned by the precedent of the "Yerkrapaitisation" of the "Hanrapetutiun" (Republic) Faction of the ANM, which occurred within one day in 1998. Republicans are concerned about the possibility of "rat race", but they do not understand one simple thing: the rat race will be the first blow not for themselves, but for the current government. In 1998 there was a coup d'état, and there were no qualitative changes either in the management system or in the public consciousness. "Racers" were traitors to their former teammates, and the public was indifferent to this phenomenon. In this situation, the current government can not tolerate this "gift" in its ranks, because the revolutionary society will not accept it. They can not be in a new management system in any status.

Both sides are compelled to fulfill the demand of the public - to make irreversible changes in the country, which will not allow us to return to the old ways and relations. Other scenarios are dangerous for both sides.

The Armenian Center for National and International Studies

Yerznkian 75, 0033
Yerevan, Armenia


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