Tuesday, 04 August 2020

E Editorial

The authorities can not avoid the Karabakh issue

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Active reorganization of the political field of Armenia, which began after a change of power, occurs during a dramatic change in international relations. These processes are particularly acute in our region. Domestic political changes in Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and other countries of the region are due to geopolitical factors. This statement will also be correct if we approach it from the opposite side: domestic political changes affect the international situation.

The Syrian war shook the Greater Middle East. Trump calls into question the irrevocable nature of globalization and speaks with the slogan "America First." The principle of globalization, which does not recognize borders, is in essence called into question. Protectionism and trade wars are replacing globalization. The European Union is trying to create a single armed force. French President Macron explained the creation of the United Armed Forces for the necessary protection from Russia, China and ... the United States.

Field theorists are already discussing possible new rules of international relations or possible principles of a new world order.

It is known from history that the transition from one world order to another passes through wars. In the 17th century, the Thirty Years' War laid the foundation for the international Westphalian system, after the First and Second World Wars the world order of Yalta was formed. Now a period of uncertainty begins again.

What changes the world expects are a separate topic for discussion. The subject of discussion is also the likelihood of a new global war, but local conflicts occur in our area in the form of “hybrid” wars.

Presidential adviser on national security, John Bolton, called the Karabakh conflict a global problem. He announced the South Caucasus in the area of US national interests. Such words are not accidental.

Against this background, the Karabakh conflict is at the center of geopolitical changes. The events around Armenia suggest that Turkey, Russia, Iran, as well as large and small players in the region will not remain indifferent to the current negotiations on the Artsakh issue. However, the political parties of Armenia, especially on the eve of the elections, do not organize a debate on this issue. The most likely reason is that the parties, and in general, the political thought of Armenia could not develop an approach and, accordingly, a strategy.

The fight against corruption, justice, the environment, political prisoners and political assassinations became the cornerstone of the change of power in Armenia. People wanted a change. Former authorities led Armenia to stagnation.

The change of power took place. The degree of justification of public expectations is a separate issue, but over the past decades after the elections to the National Assembly, the traditional question of Artsakh can again become the most serious, complex issue of political life, which the new authorities are unlikely to dodge. Moreover, the points of view of superpowers and regional actors interested in this issue may be mutually exclusive.

The Armenian Center for National and International Studies

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