Sunday, 29 November 2020

E Editorial

Artsakh war: the unbelievable is apparent

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The war unleashed in Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh) was predictable, moreover, the military-political leadership of Azerbaijan and that of Turkey, which has joined it recently, directly proclaimed about it. The format of the war between Armenians and Azerbaijanis has been changed since its launch, turning into a war between Armenians and Turks. Everything that is happening now, was warned about. However, the majority of the society did not believe that it was possible. Why? The answer is simple: the world has changed, but the society's inertia of thinking hinders it from perceiving the new. And what has changed? Before answering that question let us understand the current situation with the inertia of thinking.

Most of the citizens of Armenia who lived in the Soviet Union for 70 years believed that Turkey was "far" from us, and Turkish Army's military presence in Armenia was simply unbelievable, since the world was separated by “the iron curtain,” and any confrontation between the superpowers might  turn into a world war.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union Turkey continues to stay in NATO and seeks European Union membership by carrying out democratic reforms in order to deserve the honor.  In a nutshell, Turkey was a predictable country and was controlled by the West. In this respect, we were also safe from Turkish military interventions. However, the world, as it is mentioned above, has changed currently, but many still think in old schemes.

Now let us see what has specifically changed in the world as a result of which Turkish military intervention of Armenia has become realistic, making us convinced about it.  

After the collapse of one of the two superpowers - the Soviet Union, an unpredictable situation has been created in the United States, emerging geopolitical conflict inside the contry. The conflict, without romantic ideas, is between the Democratic and Republican Parties’ programs on US remaining a superpower based on its "national interests."

We will see which path the US will take in near future, however it is the Republican Party’s program in effect at the moment. According to the program former empires, the countries having superpower ambitions, are taking the lead. Consequently, we live in a time when uncertainty and permissiveness are dominating in the international politics. The USA is no longer almighty, especially in the Caucasus. It is not almighty and it is dubious whether or not it can stop Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict even with the best will in the world. The USA has not demonstrated such interest yet. As for Turkey, it got out of control and pursued its distinctive dominant expansionist politics. Such a brutal power could be stopped only by other brutal power. And neither EU, nor USA could stop it. Their interests are quite different.

This is what has been changes in the world. And the international community no longer solves the problems by formulas and round tables in the new world. The factor of force has become important.

We are entering the new world, where a lot of things that formerly seemed unbelievable are currently possible.

The Armenian Center for National and International Studies

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