Armenia is set to hold its third parliamentary elections in 2026, and the electoral race has already begun to take shape. The domestic political maneuvers and frequent regional visits under the "Education is Fashionable" initiative, which have become an almost daily occurrence, align with the logic of pre-election campaigning. The upcoming elections promise to be of critical importance for the nation's future. At a minimum, there is widespread anticipation that the 2026 elections will pave the way for a new system of governance. Any attempt to replicate or perpetuate old structures risks deepening public disillusionment further.
However, the current developments offer little reason for optimism. A government embroiled in corruption appears to be laying the groundwork for a new oligarchic framework as a reliable means of maintaining its grip on power. Nevertheless, not all hope is lost. In the run-up to the elections, a united opposition under a cohesive platform could significantly influence the outcome. To achieve this, the opposition must form a disciplined team firmly anchored in national values, equipped with clear ideas, and supported by a well-defined pre-election agenda.
In this context, it is essential to briefly examine the governance systems that have operated in Armenia before and after 2018, as understanding these systems is key to comprehending the ongoing process of systemic transformation.
Before the 2018 "Velvet Revolution," Armenia's governance was often described as "criminal-oligarchic" or simply oligarchic. This system was characterized by the division of power among major economic players through shadow agreements. The primary asset being divided was public wealth—encompassing entire territories, communities, movable and immovable assets, and quotas. In many ways, this oligarchic system resembled a feudal society, devoid of fair competition or justice. This relentless pursuit of wealth led to economic stagnation, brain drain, and capital flight.
Against the backdrop of this criminal-oligarchic system—defined by unbridled corruption and judicial arbitrariness—the 2018 "Velvet Revolution" appeared almost miraculous. It inspired euphoria among the populace, as a populist leader, Pashinyan, rose to power. Pashinyan was initially perceived as a champion of freedom and justice—an almost mythical figure emerging from the grassroots. His support base primarily consisted of those disenchanted with the old system, including marginalized groups and members of the lower social strata.
Yet, the dramatic rise of Pashinyan was matched by the depth of disillusionment his governance would bring. Pashinyan proved to be deceitful, vengeful, and lacking in strategic vision, governance skills, and a sense of responsibility. He is now remembered as the only leader in Armenia’s millennia-old history to have treacherously surrendered vast Armenian territories, including the three-millennia-old Artsakh, to an enemy. During his tenure, he treated the state budget as his personal coffers, adding 7 billion USD to Armenia’s debt without delivering tangible programs or results. Over time, he lost both his electorate and his credibility. Realizing his precarious position, Pashinyan saw only one path to political survival: the restoration of the criminal-oligarchic system inherited from his predecessor, Serzh Sargsyan.
Recent incidents, such as the infamous brawl at the Nor Nork district municipality in Yerevan, underscore the resurgence of this system. In the capital, Pashinyan’s "chosen" oligarchs appear to be reviving a structure that could spread across Armenia by 2026. While it remains uncertain whether this government will endure, one thing is undeniable: the establishment of a new criminal-oligarchic regime would mark a tragic chapter in Armenia’s history.