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June 29, 2010

ACNIS Holds Workshop on Scenario Planning

Yerevan—The Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS) convened a special workshop on scenario planning today, with presentations by analyst Sargis Harutiunian and ACNIS Director Richard Giragosian.  The workshop offered a “new innovative concept of strategic planning and policy formulation related to regional security studies and based on several different scenarios.”

The workshop focused on two areas: (1) crisis preparation & management, which included an analysis of longer-term trends, on both a global and regional scale, aimed at capacity-building for policies in anticipation of crises before they occur; and (2) scenario planning, which consisted of the use of an innovative concept of scenario-planning and policy formulation based on “situational and dynamic assessments and forecasting of trends in the political, informational, military and energy spheres.”

Harutiunian and Giragosian explained that “this new analytical exercise consists of five key steps: monitoring, analysis, assessment, forecasting and recommendations.”  Giragosian added that the model also uses a technique known as “SWOT analysis, which means Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats, or SWOT.”

The speakers also detailed “how this analytical model can be applied to the study and preparation for several different crises, including a possible opening of the long-closed Armenian border with Turkey, the possible escalation of Azerbaijani attacks against Karabagh, the danger of war in Iran, or changes within Azerbaijan.”

Both speakers noted the “need for greater strategic planning for different scenarios as a requirement for enhancing Armenian national security and to strengthen longer term strategic planning.”  The presentations were then followed by a series of questions and answers, and featured a lively exchange with the audience.

The Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS) is a leading independent strategic research center located in Yerevan, Armenia.  As an independent, objective institution committed to conducting professional policy research and analysis, ACNIS strives to raise the level of public debate and seeks to broaden public engagement in the public policy process, as well as fostering greater and more inclusive public knowledge. Founded in 1994, ACNIS is the institutional initiative of Raffi K. Hovannisian, Armenia’s first Minister of Foreign Affairs.  Over the past fifteen years, ACNIS has acquired a prominent reputation as a primary source of professional independent research and analysis covering a wide range of national and international policy issues.

For further information on the Center call (37410) 52-87-80 or 27-48-18; fax (37410) 52-48-46; email root@acnis.am or info@acnis.am; or visit www.acnis.am.

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